Heat Face Pivotal Decision on Duncan Robinson’s $19.9M Deal as Franchise’s Greatest Shooter Nears Crossroads
As the 2025 NBA Draft nears and free agency looms just weeks away, the Miami Heat find themselves at a crossroads with one of the most prolific shooters in franchise history. Duncan Robinson, the sharpshooting wing who redefined Miami’s perimeter game, is entering the final year of a five-year contract, with a partially guaranteed $19.9 million salary for the 2025-26 season. The decision on his future could have ripple effects across the franchise’s cap flexibility and roster construction.
Robinson’s impact on the Heat cannot be overstated. Undrafted out of Michigan, he rapidly ascended from G League hopeful to a historic long-range weapon in Erik Spoelstra’s system. Over the course of his Miami tenure, Robinson has drained 218 more three-pointers than any other player in franchise history, doing so with a remarkable 39.7 percent shooting clip from beyond the arc. He holds the record for being the fastest player in NBA history to reach each 100-made three-point milestone up to 1,000, a testament to both his volume and efficiency.
Yet, as valuable as Robinson’s shooting is, Miami’s front office must weigh that against his hefty cap number and inconsistent role over recent seasons. At times, his defensive limitations have led to reduced playoff minutes, and his production has fluctuated with changes in team personnel and offensive focus. With Jimmy Butler’s future uncertain, Tyler Herro’s fit still in question, and Bam Adebayo anchoring the core, the Heat are carefully evaluating who fits into their long-term vision.
Robinson’s deal includes only a partial guarantee for next season, giving Miami a potential off-ramp if they decide to reshape their roster. Waiving him before the guarantee date would save the franchise millions in cap space, opening up flexibility in both free agency and potential trades. But doing so would also mean parting ways with a player who still brings elite spacing and proven playoff shooting, two commodities that are increasingly valuable in today’s game.
The Heat could also explore the trade market. Robinson’s contract, while sizable, is expiring—a key trait for teams looking to clear future cap space. Contenders in need of shooting or rebuilding teams looking to take on salary for picks could make for logical trade partners. Miami could attach assets to move him or flip him as part of a larger package for an impact player.
Timing will be critical. The draft could bring new wings or guards into the fold, potentially duplicating Robinson’s skill set. Free agency could offer Miami a chance to pursue two-way players who better fit the evolving identity of a team looking to return to title contention. In either scenario, clarity on Robinson’s status may come sooner rather than later.
Ultimately, Robinson’s legacy in Miami is secure—he changed how the Heat spaced the floor and became a symbol of player development excellence. But the NBA is a business, and sentiment rarely dictates strategy. As the calendar inches closer to key offseason dates, Pat Riley and the Heat’s front office are staring down a pivotal decision: keep investing in one of their greatest shooters ever, or move on in search of a different formula.
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