SG1 Sports Releases Michigan Football 2025 Projected Record: High Expectations for Wolverines
Ann Arbor, MI – May 16, 2025 — SG1 Sports, one of the leading voices in college football projections and analysis, has released its projected record for the Michigan Wolverines heading into the 2025 season. The respected simulation-based outlet predicts Michigan will finish the 2025 regular season with a 10-2 overall record, once again contending for a Big Ten Championship and a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff.
Coming off a successful 2024 campaign that included a strong showing in the Big Ten and a major bowl appearance, Michigan enters the new season with high expectations under second-year head coach Sherrone Moore. Despite the loss of several key players to the NFL and graduation, SG1’s model sees the Wolverines remaining one of the premier programs in the nation.
Challenging Schedule Ahead
One of the major reasons SG1 projects Michigan to drop two games is the difficulty of their 2025 schedule. With the Big Ten’s full integration of USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, the Wolverines now face a more rigorous path to the conference title.
According to SG1’s simulation, Michigan’s toughest games will come on the road—at USC on October 11 and at Ohio State in the regular season finale on November 29. The model predicts both matchups to be narrow losses, though toss-ups in nature. Michigan is given a 45% chance to beat USC in Los Angeles and a 43% chance to win in Columbus.
The Wolverines are expected to win all three of their non-conference games: New Mexico (home), Texas Tech (home), and Virginia (away). SG1’s model heavily favors Michigan in each of those contests, projecting comfortable double-digit victories.
Key Wins Predicted
Despite the challenging schedule, SG1 forecasts several key victories that could define Michigan’s 2025 campaign. The October 18 home game against rival Michigan State is projected as a win, with a 68% confidence rating in favor of the Wolverines. Another highlight is the projected victory over Oregon on November 1 in Eugene, where Michigan is given a slight edge due to its defensive matchup and Oregon’s quarterback turnover.
SG1’s analytics also favor Michigan in Big Ten games against Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, and Maryland, citing the Wolverines’ balance on offense and an experienced defensive front.
Playoff Implications Still Strong
Even with two projected losses, SG1 believes Michigan is firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation thanks to the expanded 12-team format. If the Wolverines finish 10-2 and earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship game, a conference title could vault them into one of the coveted playoff berths.
“Michigan remains a top-tier team with elite depth, especially in the trenches,” SG1 Sports analyst David Thompson said. “Their ability to control the line of scrimmage and adapt on defense keeps them competitive in every game.”
Player Development and X-Factors
Much of Michigan’s success will hinge on quarterback play and the development of new starters at key skill positions. SG1 points to sophomore QB Tyler McNamara—projected to start—as a breakout candidate. Additionally, the linebacker corps and secondary are areas where depth will be tested.
Still, the Wolverines are expected to reload, not rebuild.
With expectations high and the margin for error small, the 2025 season is shaping up to be one of Michigan’s most exciting in years. If SG1’s projections prove accurate, the Wolverines could be on track for yet another postseason run and perhaps even a shot at redemption in the national spotlight.
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